‘technical analysis’ Tagged Posts

Building Wealth In The Trading Business

Getting the better of the inflation and rising prices is a challenge for many of us. Whatever we do we just cannot make ends meet all the time. One ...

 

Getting the better of the inflation and rising prices is a challenge for many of us. Whatever we do we just cannot make ends meet all the time. One of the best ways to break this cycle of earning and spending is through the business of trading. Trading can help investments grow rapidly creating value.

There are many investments that you can take up. Popularly people invest in stocks while off late there are other investment avenues that have cropped up and become accessible to general public. These are dollar trading and FOREX trading.

Stock trading is a very well known business where you are trading stocks. Stocks are in general percentage ownership of the company. So when you buy stocks you are buying some ownership in the company. The idea behind the stock is that if the company performs well, they will share the profits and hence people are willing to pay for its ownership.

The FOREX trading is a business where you are trading on foreign exchange currencies. Everyday these currencies fluctuate and as an investor you are looking to purchase the currency cheap and sell it expensive. It is very similar to trading stocks; it is just that in this case you are bidding on the country or economy and not a single company.

Sometimes the currencies are not traded in local exchange but in their dollar equivalents. This is kind of trading is called dollar trading.

In all these trading opportunities you are taking a risk based on speculation. You expect the rate or value to go up while there is no guarantee it would. However, it is this speculation that drives these markets and if you play it to the market trends and sentiments you can make decent returns on your investment.

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Conspiracy Theory CDOs Anyone.

 

Today’s economics are not for the timid. Above and beyond knowing the basics of how money works, there is another layer which needs to be fathomed. That layer is called by many shadow banking.

The public would be wise to become very intimate to the games afoot. The alphabet soup of derivatives first must be made comprehensible to be controlled.

The author was fortunate to have been in banking in the mid 90s. That particular banking group was very concerned. It was very clear that swaps and derivatives could cause a financial meltdown. The underlying concern was that greed alone would drive the industry into wilder and wilder financial instruments with no underlying value. It did come to pass. As early as July 2007 the auction system for these kinds of instruments started to fail. Financial institutions backed away from taking on these “same as cash” instruments.

The bankers started pushing the CDOs out the door. They managed to get them off their books and into the hands of others, most of whom were sold these as “same as cash” which of course they were not.

When the auctions failed totally in Mid-Feb 2008 300 billion dollars in “same as cash” became illiquid. That is to say they about as far from “same as cash” as you can get.

I emphasize, that individuals and businesses had been told that these things were money market accounts, (same as cash). Many businesses and personal economic lives came to a screeching halt. The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development Financial regulation institutions were flooded with complaints.

Of course, no on e in the industry had really done anything wrong. The result was that at least a number of small investors got back their principal.

The press ignored the story. It must be a coincidence that the wrong-doers were also major sponsors.

What got the press to cover the story was the total meltdown in September 08. When Bernanke and Paulson demanded 700 billion dollars for Wall Street the story started to unfold to the public.

What kind of accountability is it that plays Robin Hood on the taxpayer for the benefit the banks?

Two days after the Presidential Election the markets continue to sputter. The word on the street is that that market is not pleased with the idea that full the street will not get full bonuses at year end.

Specifically Dick Fuld of Lehman Brothers is being cut off at year end with no Bonus. His bonus in 2007 was a clear 34 million. dollars.Alan Greenspan’s discipleship of Ayn Rand gave him a blind spot in the area of regulation. On October 24th 08 he was quoted as saying to the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself especially, are in a state of shocked disbelief.”

Clearly Rand’s notion of enlightened self-interest did not trump raw greed for the banking industry. For more on Rand, see Objectivism and the 1957 novel “Atlas Shrugged”.This all plays nicely into the capital C Conspiracy Theorists who are ready to gloat over the “I told ya so’s”.

These “Too big to fail” are not national institutions. They are international. The idea of a sovereign nation is a thing of the past.

Will the New Vikings prevail? Stay tuned

James Horne has been a financial analyst for over 10 years. He is CEO of Pure Reason LLC, the home of Shadowtraders. His voice has been heard by hundreds of students learning to trade the Futures Market with Shadowtraders online day trading strategies. Before you purchase any trading software, make sure you attend Shadowtraders Monday Night Webinar, and hosted by Barbara Cohen

Technical Analysis – What Is Technical Analysis

 

While there can be hundreds of steps used by forex trader to foresee price movement, they belong to one of three varieties of traders.

These categories are Technical analysis, Fundamental analysis plus finally, a mixture of both technical along with fundamental analysis. While forex trading can be pulled off effectively when using only a single type of analysis, traders that understand both fundamental in addition to technical analysis benefit greatly.

Simply put, Technical analysis is the study of historical data, volume and price to establish current and future forex trends. Technical traders believe that all the data required for a successful trade can be found on the charts with no other factors taken into consideration.

Nevertheless, the way the charts are viewed plus the forex indicators used for such an analysis are incredibly broad. Forex trends, support and resistance fields, daily pivots and pattern identification is also to employed in technical analysis.

Strict Technical forex traders are only worried with these factors plus do not take economic factors into account, unlike Fundamental forex traders. Trend identification in particular plays a very big role in technical analysis. There are a vast amount of tools as well as forex indicators applied to establish trends as well as reversals.

Because technical traders react to most trend changes, they tend to open many more trades that a fundamental trader would. A lot of the time, they are primarily short to mid term traders. Having said that, scalpers can employ both disciplines along with end up opening huge amounts of trades every week. But that is a subject for another time.

Technical analysis is also the most recognizable type of market analysis in the world at the moment. The reasons for this are simple. This is mainly because technical analysis is easily understood along with implemented by anyone. The trader does not need a good grasp of economics.

Should you require a thorough tutorial On Fundamental Analysis in addition to a wide variety of Popular Technical Analysis can be found on the authors forex trading website.

How to do Stock Trend Analysis

 

I can recall pretty well what it was like trying to get started with Stock Trend Analysis. The learning curve was painful at times. It seems regardless of what I found out, I didn’t understand quite enough to apply it. Over time with some real tenacity I became good at enough to begin netting some real money in the stock market.

My own major hurdle to gaining skill was there are so many well meaning people willing to extend advice and so many resources online for technical descriptions of disparate indicators, but nothing I picked up seemed to help me understand how all these indicator definitions and macroeconomic information fit together to form a decent understanding of technical trading. I think I can save you some time and lots of frustration with this handy little getting started guide.

An overview of technical analysis.

I figure if you are interested in technical analysis sufficiency to read this far, you are already enlightened with how the stock market functions and how to buy and sell stocks. I hope so because it is a requirement. Bear in mind this is an conversational overview of the learning path many traders, myself included have taken to understand Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis – Fundamental Topics. What is Technical Analysis? For the unaware, there are two leading sorts of Stock Analysis.

Technical and Fundamental Analysis Although the two are not , traders tend to prefer one over the other. Fundamental Analysis looks at a company s assets, debt, earnings and cash flow. It gives the analyst a clear characterization of a company’s health. When an analysis of one company is compared to its peers (groups of companies in the same business) it presents clues about potential weaknesses and strengths of the company. Its also useful in appraising a company’s long term chances for growth.

Technical Analysis looks to take advantage of the mass knowledge of open market participants (other traders) who are by-and-large Fundamental Analysts. Technical Analysis is at its heart an analysis of supply and demand. So, lets discover precisely how Technical Analysts use the market as their guide on trading markets.

A Simple Technical Analysis Example: Price Speaks Volumes First, realize that Price and Volume are both technical indicators. Price being naturally the central indicator over any other. Each time a stock price moves up it bespeaks a vote of optimism by all players. Sellers stood firm for a higher price than the prevalent rate and buyers stepped in and bought at that price anyway. Sellers holding out for more money while buyers step in to pay the difference between the market and asking price shows market optimism.

Volume is the amount of shares exchanged over time. Technical traders look at price and volume in concert to estimate how optimistic or pessimistic buyers and sellers are and perhaps are becoming. Growth in volume across a given time-frame bespeaks profit-maximizing participation and hence progressive strong belief that prices will carry on to move in the current direction. Whereas, when volume begins to wane it is an indicator that market players are losing their conviction that prices will go along in their current direction.

When volume is increasing along with prices, participants anticipate prices to proceed to climb. Technical traders speculate that prices will increase so long as volume is better than normal. If prices continue to go up while at the same time volume starts to drop, the participants are voting with less shares. This condition is a form of technical breakdown.

Typical Volume Based Price Breakdown. One more phenomenon to think about is that once price direction changes, volume may start to grow, again verifying the strong belief of market participants of the new price direction. When an indicator such as volume begins to concur with the price direction, this is acknowledged as a kind of price confirmation.

Technical Analysis Indicators Apart from the simple indicators of price and volume, there are infinite indicators and more are produced every day. An indicator can frequently be something as simple as a moving average or far more complex involving long formulas. As you’ve seen already, indicators are an operative part of understanding and anticipating market action. All technical analysis indicators fit two different classes.

It is important to observe that market circumstances dictate which form you will use, but never ignore price. Indicators are forecasters, but price speaks volumes, only prices are reality.

Leading indicators are used in sideways markets. Leading indicators react before price does. Most leading indicators set about to demonstrate changes in the strength or force of price direction, or momentum. Leading indicators are useful to help traders anticipate price movements because they can establish the strength or weakness of prices at their current level. Leading indicators do not do well as buy/sell indicators in steadily trending markets (up or down) because they indicate changes in momentum. They do well in sideways markets and give traders accurate signals about when to buy or sell.

Some usable leading indicators include Momentum, Stochastic and the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The RSI (leading indicator flags the overbought condition).

Lagging Indicators / Trend Following Indicators Use in trending markets (moving up / moving down).

Lagging indicators follow price moves. A moving average is a simplified kind of lagging indicator. Lagging indicators are frequently employed when the markets are in a very strong trend. They rapidly show traders the average direction of a stock price. They can send erroneous signals in markets that are trading at parity / proceeding sideways. Their optimal use is in trending markets because they can clearly show traders when to enter and how long to remain.

The most popular lagging Indicators include Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) The moving average is a Trend Following Indicator.

Technical Analysis Understanding time frames. In Technical Analysis, indicators are meaningless without understanding them in the context of time. Indicators, leading and lagging both use time and price as the very basis of any formula. It may help to see time frames as magnification of detail. If you view a one year weekly chart and zoom into a one year daily chart, you are immediately aware that you can see price action in bigger detail. Similarly moving from a one year daily chart to a three month daily chart affords even better detail of the price activity.

More about time frames in technical analysis: Watching multiple time frames exposes greater detail.

What sort of trader are you? Do you buy into a trade and then watch impatiently at every tick in the stock price? Or are you more of a set it and forget it kind of trader who monitors the price every few days or weeks? Maybe your style is someplace in between? Why is this important and what does it have to do with time frames? read on.

The Day Trader Day Traders speedily buy and sell stocks multiple times a day to attempt to seal in quick profits. The Day Trader examines chart patterns and indicators which may span only a few hours or even a few minutes. Day trading is a speculative job where great amounts are realized or lost in mere seconds. Day Traders pay precise attention to tick-by-tick price information as it comes out on their screen in real time.

Under FINRA and NYSE rules, a trader once flagged and classified as a pattern day trader, must keep up a $25,000 account balance must obtain a margin account. For more info on day trading refer to the FINRA Notice to Members and the NYSE Information Memo.

The Active Trader – Momentum Trader Although there is no standard definition as with the Day Trader, the Active Trader looks for trends that span from a few months to as little as a few days. A typical trade for an Active Trader trader can be really brief, maybe a day or may last for many months as long as the on-going trend is intact.

Active Trader Strategy – The Swing Trader Although the strategy used by the swing trader is very similar to that of the Active Trader, the central deviation is that the swing trader looks to maximize profits by capitalizing of the natural downturns in an overall upward trending stock. The Swing Trader cycles in and out of the trade repeatedly until the general trend weakens before making a last exit. Swing traders must observe the price activity more often than the active momentum trader since the swing trade requires frequent attention.

To see the original Technical Analysis article complete with example charts, visit www.StockChartGrabber.com